If everything is figured out, then there is no need to question and no mysteries to uncover with curiosity.
We Thought We Solved Everything…
I’ve been pondering whether those of us haunted by impostor syndrome are onto something. Perhaps it’s not us but those without this self-doubt who are missing the mark. Maybe we’re not as great as we think we are (collectively).
I’m often mystified why a “simple” problem I’m encountering hasn’t been solved. Why isn’t there an electric razor that shaves as well as a traditional one? What do you mean the wildfire can’t be extinguished? In Hollywood!? Why does it take 18 months to get a COVID 19 vaccine? The US government sent $1.4B in stimulus checks to dead people? in 2020? And the biggest one, why is my printer always broken!? This should be solved, right??
These questions seem legitimate “nowadays” as we humans seem to already have near infinite ability to fix “everyday” problems. Obviously, this does not apply to all areas of the globe yet: hence, “first world problems”. In any case, a hundred years ago, an out of control wildfire would seem less mystifying to the general public. They viewed it as a big problem/danger that would take a tremendous amount of work to put out. (Perhaps the thought of putting it out never occurred to many at the time because it was so far out of reach.) Likewise, its magnitude is appropriately estimated by someone driving through the middle of it (or running away from it). However, to many of the rest of us today, the perceived magnitude of the problem has decreased faster than our ability to solve it. “Oh it’s just a little fire. They’ll get it put out…”
The Illusion of Superiority
It does seem like there’s some underlying bias at play. Clearly the feeling that all our problems have been solved and the only frontier that remains is between here and utopia is an illusion.
Some of this is expected as we know humans have lots of quirks, both as individuals and as groups. I’ve spent time doing research in the field of haptic perception, so I’ve learned how many biases we have in our physical interactions with the world that we don’t realize. I started thinking about how this apparent phenomenon, which I started calling the “Societal Dunning-Kruger Effect”, might be biasing our interactions with the world during our daily lives.
If you aren’t familiar, the Dunning–Kruger Effect is defined by the Internet Journal of Facts and Knowledge (Wikipedia) as “a cognitive bias in which people assess their cognitive ability as greater than it is […] and comes from the inability of people to recognize their lack of ability.”
So, when do you think this Dunning-Kruger Effect was discovered? Seems like a pretty obvious thing. Some guys probably wrote that in 1896 maybe…or 1921. Probably at Harvard or Cambridge. OK, we’re exaggerating. Realistically, it was in the 60s or 70s, right? In fact, Dunning & Kruger published their seminal paper in 1999!
Some Observations From an Amateur
Hopefully this heading gets me out of trouble with Dunning and Kruger in case I overstep my expertise with what I say next…
I was reading 21 Lessons for the 21st Century (an excellent read) when I came across a paragraph where Harari mentions how the modern citizen has opinions on many things from medicine to science to morality. And here comes the Dunning-Kruger Effect, we often feel we know the relevant facts to back up our opinion when, in fact, we know practically nothing about it! Now, at first this might seem like run-of-the-mill Dunning-Kruger, but I believe that there are several societal factors that provided a catalyst. These are the internet (of course) and rapid advances in technology, but also a cultural attitude and acceptance. It comes down to something like, “I’m watching Netflix in my solar-powered tent on the edge of the Grand Canyon…why can’t they put out a ‘little’ fire in LA?”
It seems to me that examples of this “expectation bubble” pop up all the time. Investors want 10% growth year over year. We “need” new smartphone models every year from every manufacturer. Faculty are expected to publish many papers each year. Podcast episodes expected weekly. Entry level jobs that require three to five years of experience… So it follows from these successes that things should be cheap and things should be fast because they’re “easy” relative to our ability…or so our thinking goes. This issue seems to have permeated deeply into modern western culture.
OK, You’ve Convinced Me. So What?
It seems to me that a primary symptom of the Societal Dunning-Kruger Effect is unrealistic expectations of society. Such a fundamental cultural perspective has to have large consequences by definition. Some consequences I’ve noticed are that we often don’t take big problems seriously (e.g., COVID, climate change, our diet/health), and we devalue certain types of achievements (e.g., being a great electrician). We’ve also seen how impactful the individual Dunning-Kruger Effect is at scale (e.g., the Jan. 6th Capitol riot, flat earthers, anti-vaxxers, QAnon).
Most of us don’t recognize what a massive effort it took to figure out all the little details that make a smartphone possible. Perhaps we don’t notice it because we literally don’t see it. The steam engine and printing press were also technological mammoths, but very few people owned one. They weren’t ubiquitous like smartphones and the internet. Possessing this technology provides an odd sense of personal accomplishment. Perhaps this is contributing to the feeling that we as a society have solved most things and that many things are simple/easy when, in reality, they are not.
Maybe breaking out of this Societal Dunning-Kruger mindset would switch our attention once again to great leaders and thinkers in science, philosophy, justice, engineering, medicine, politics, and economics to solve these BIG problems. Perhaps we would reintroduce a few positions in the hero gallery for real heroes. A few nominations that come to mind are Malcolm Gladwell, Jane Goodall, Christopher Hitchens, Steven Pinker, John McWhorter, Glenn Loury, and Richard Dawkins.
Let’s bring back a sense of awe for the challenges we face and the solutions that heroes discover…
Maybe the printer isn’t broken. Maybe we just forgot it’s a miracle that it works at all.